The Canary Sings!

Steve Bannon has been removed from the NSC Principals Committee. As the New York Times is reporting, “A new order issued by Mr. Trump, dated Tuesday and made public on Wednesday, removes Mr. Bannon from the principals committee, restores the chairman of the Joint Chiefs and intelligence director and also adds the energy secretary, C.I.A. director and United Nations ambassador.”

This is a huge victory for Secretary Mattis and General McMaster who have been pushing against the Trump administration to depoliticize the foreign policy decision making processes, appoint their own deputies, and otherwise resist the seemingly unstrategic decisions of the administration. As I blogged in the inaugural post of Security Dilemmas, whether Mattis and McMaster stayed in the government would be a huge sign as to whether “[Mattis] (the post was written before McMaster replaced Flynn as NSA) is able to implement the policies he prefers and is not being forced to move too far from those positions. If, however, Mattis resigns abruptly or early on in the first administration, that could very well be a sign that President Trump may be demanding implementation of his policies in the Pentagon, and perhaps across the whole government.”

Now it seems not only that they’re staying, but that they’re winning. They haven’t won every one of these battles, but they’ve won the most important ones. Removing Bannon from the NSC Principals Committee is a clear sign that Trump listens to and trusts Mattis and McMaster, that Bannon does not control the president’s every move, and that sane, rational decision makers who have a clear sense of the importance of the traditional role of the US are in control. It’s a good day for American foreign policy, American national interest, and global peace and security.

Dangers of Un-Leadership

It is still early in the administration of Donald Trump (has it really only been a month?) and fortunately there haven’t been any serious foreign policy crises yet. But that is not to say that all is well in the national security offices of the executive branch. Disturbing and dangerous signs are visible that President Trump has no idea what he is doing, makes up policy on the fly, likely based on whatever cable news show he last watched, and ignores his cabinet and policy advisers, forcing them to either contort policy around Trump’s tweets and outbursts or to clean up the mess from what he has unwittingly done. Meanwhile, Trump spends much of his time on the links and trying to hide his golf outings from the press.

This is an echo of the offer that was allegedly made to John Kasich during the campaign that if he became vice president he would be in charge of making policy and running the country while the president focused on “making America great again.” But it is, in fact, much much worse.

Everything that the president says matters. His words are parsed and scrutinized by everyone from friends to allies to enemies. When the president does not, will not, and cannot lead effectively and efficiently it causes chaos and uncertainty, neither of which are desirable in foreign policy. While surprise is good on the battlefield, it is bad in geopolitics, where wars can erupt over misunderstandings and where delicate policy negotiations can be undone by one errant remark. Trump’s “un-leadership” is endangering not just US national security but the peace and stability that the international system has long enjoyed.

Continue reading “Dangers of Un-Leadership”